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Oil Context Weekly (W28)
Crude prices rose amidst renewed geopolitical tumult, now with a focus on potential Russian sanctions, and ever-stronger spot market pressures alongside…
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Rory Johnston
OPEC Operation Tabula Rasa
The producer group is now set to wind up its latest and largest production cut tranche as soon as September—but there will still be ~3.6 MMbpd of…
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Rory Johnston
1
Oil Context Weekly (W27)
Crude prices edged higher on firmer term structure and US trade deal optimism while middle distillates, like diesel, continue to be the epicenter of…
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Rory Johnston
North American Oil Data Deck (July 2025)
Continental production pulled back in April on seasonal Canadian oil sands output declines, while US crude production began to stall out and demand…
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Rory Johnston

June 2025

Oil Context Weekly (W26)
Crude prices plummeted and the belly of the curve once again sank into contango as the Iran risk bubble popped, while prompt spreads strengthened…
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Rory Johnston
Global Oil Data Deck (June 2025)
Oil markets weakened further into the largest supply surplus in ~2 years in April— though much of that ended up in quasi-strategic Chinese stocks, which…
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Rory Johnston
Oil Context Weekly (W25)
Crude prices attempted to find their comfort level amidst back the Israel-Iran headline rollercoaster, while futures curves steepened into backwardation…
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Rory Johnston
Iran and Barrel Risk: Three Scenarios
Current oil market context, three scenarios for Israel-Iran oil risk, and why Israel—not Iran—will likely decide the next stage of conflict escalation.
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Rory Johnston
OPEC+ Data Deck (June 2025)
OPEC+ crude output rose in May, but Great 8 production increased by barely more than one-third of pledged 411 kbpd quota hike.
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Rory Johnston
Oil Context Weekly (W24)
Israeli strike on Iran upends crude market, shifts focus from gradually and organically improving fundamentals to geopolitical tail risk.
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Rory Johnston
2
Oil’s Wrinkle In Time
The current shape of the crude oil futures curve is extremely rare and simply cannot last.
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Rory Johnston
Oil Context Weekly (W23)
Crude prices recovered to around their highest level since April as speculators returned to the barrel, while the rise and fall of Western Canadian…
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Rory Johnston
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