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Oil Context Weekly (W28)
Crude prices rose amidst renewed geopolitical tumult, now with a focus on potential Russian sanctions, and ever-stronger spot market pressures alongside…
23 hrs ago
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Rory Johnston
8
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Oil Context Weekly (W28)
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OPEC Operation Tabula Rasa
The producer group is now set to wind up its latest and largest production cut tranche as soon as September—but there will still be ~3.6 MMbpd of…
Jul 10
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Rory Johnston
9
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OPEC Operation Tabula Rasa
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1
Oil Context Weekly (W27)
Crude prices edged higher on firmer term structure and US trade deal optimism while middle distillates, like diesel, continue to be the epicenter of…
Jul 4
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Rory Johnston
8
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Oil Context Weekly (W27)
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North American Oil Data Deck (July 2025)
Continental production pulled back in April on seasonal Canadian oil sands output declines, while US crude production began to stall out and demand…
Jul 3
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Rory Johnston
10
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North American Oil Data Deck (July 2025)
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June 2025
Oil Context Weekly (W26)
Crude prices plummeted and the belly of the curve once again sank into contango as the Iran risk bubble popped, while prompt spreads strengthened…
Jun 27
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Rory Johnston
16
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Oil Context Weekly (W26)
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Global Oil Data Deck (June 2025)
Oil markets weakened further into the largest supply surplus in ~2 years in April— though much of that ended up in quasi-strategic Chinese stocks, which…
Jun 26
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Rory Johnston
13
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Global Oil Data Deck (June 2025)
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Oil Context Weekly (W25)
Crude prices attempted to find their comfort level amidst back the Israel-Iran headline rollercoaster, while futures curves steepened into backwardation…
Jun 20
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Rory Johnston
17
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Oil Context Weekly (W25)
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Iran and Barrel Risk: Three Scenarios
Current oil market context, three scenarios for Israel-Iran oil risk, and why Israel—not Iran—will likely decide the next stage of conflict escalation.
Jun 20
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Rory Johnston
17
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Iran and Barrel Risk: Three Scenarios
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OPEC+ Data Deck (June 2025)
OPEC+ crude output rose in May, but Great 8 production increased by barely more than one-third of pledged 411 kbpd quota hike.
Jun 17
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Rory Johnston
13
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OPEC+ Data Deck (June 2025)
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Oil Context Weekly (W24)
Israeli strike on Iran upends crude market, shifts focus from gradually and organically improving fundamentals to geopolitical tail risk.
Jun 13
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Rory Johnston
15
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Oil Context Weekly (W24)
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2
Oil’s Wrinkle In Time
The current shape of the crude oil futures curve is extremely rare and simply cannot last.
Jun 12
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Rory Johnston
22
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Oil’s Wrinkle In Time
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Oil Context Weekly (W23)
Crude prices recovered to around their highest level since April as speculators returned to the barrel, while the rise and fall of Western Canadian…
Jun 6
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Rory Johnston
13
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Oil Context Weekly (W23)
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