This 74-page October 2026 edition of my monthly data-dense and visualization-heavy Global Oil Data Deck series (attached PDF below) is exclusive to paid Commodity Context subscribers.
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Overview
Global liquids balances tightened again through August on the back of still-robust summer demand and a post-MOU pullback in global supplies. Between March and August, we estimate a cumulative supply deficit of roughly 500 million barrels, which has depleted the overhang of stocks built up over the year of surplus preceding the onset of the Iran War.
These depleted stocks help explain the high price environment—with Brent currently trading around $115/bbl—despite the ongoing recovery of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Add to that the widespread expectation of a re-escalation of the Iran War and market participants are keen to buy up every available barrel (subject to rich tanker availability).
Note: Chinese petroleum product demand estimates have been revised notably higher in this latest edition of the Global Oil Data Deck. Leveraging our work in The Beijing Swing, Part 2: Refined Products, these estimates better reproduce product consumption based on end-use activity (mobility, construction, etc.). The result is a material lift to global demand and, thus, a deepening of the global supply deficit over recent months. Paid subscribers will find thorough discussion of adjustments, including visual comparisons, below.