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Why Aren’t Oil Prices Weaker?
Chinese counter-economic stock-building and sanctions-related seaborne logistical woes are absorbing the arrival of surplus supply—at least for now.
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Rory Johnston
Canadian Barrel Goes [Further] Global
TMX has shifted Canadian crude flows west, entrenched China as Canada’s second-largest crude export market, and rerouted flows away from recent growth…
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Rory Johnston
Producing Canadian Supply
How barrels produced in Canada are blended and transformed into the hydrocarbon supply mix that actually hits the North American oil market.
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Rory Johnston
OPEC Operation Tabula Rasa
The producer group is now set to wind up its latest and largest production cut tranche as soon as September—but there will still be ~3.6 MMbpd of…
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Rory Johnston
3
Iran and Barrel Risk: Three Scenarios
Current oil market context, three scenarios for Israel-Iran oil risk, and why Israel—not Iran—will likely decide the next stage of conflict escalation.
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Rory Johnston
Oil’s Wrinkle In Time
The current shape of the crude oil futures curve is extremely rare and simply cannot last.
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Rory Johnston
Toward a New Demand Normal
Global petroleum product consumption has bounced back from last year’s beleaguered, sloth-like pace but we’re absolutely not yet out of the woods.
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Rory Johnston
OPEC Supply Risk Smaller Than It May Appear
Overproduction—both officially acknowledged and not—front-runs much of the official return of OPEC+ supply, leaving us in a weaker position today than…
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Rory Johnston
4
What’s Driving OPEC’s Dovish Shift?
Accelerating supply hikes into a volatile US tariff-driven economic shock is a stark shift from OPEC+’s previous cautious and hawkish market support.
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Rory Johnston
2
Public Report on Exceptional Western Canadian Crude Price Strength
Our new report with the Macdonald-Laurier Institute looks at how Canadian crude markets are as optimistic as they’ve been in months regarding US…
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Rory Johnston
1
Canadian Crude Drops Tariff Discount
The relative price of Canadian heavy oil soared over the past week on bolstered prospects for broader US tariff exemptions, erasing a months-long…
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Rory Johnston
OPEC Back and Relevant Again
OPEC+ surprised oil markets by announcing that the producer group was going ahead with the April start of planned production increases amounting to 2.5…
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Rory Johnston
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