Commodity Context

Commodity Context

Home
Oil Context Weekly
Data Decks
Thematic Research
About

Thematic Research

Oil’s Wrinkle In Time
The current shape of the crude oil futures curve is extremely rare and simply cannot last.
 • 
Rory Johnston
Toward a New Demand Normal
Global petroleum product consumption has bounced back from last year’s beleaguered, sloth-like pace but we’re absolutely not yet out of the woods.
 • 
Rory Johnston
OPEC Supply Risk Smaller Than It May Appear
Overproduction—both officially acknowledged and not—front-runs much of the official return of OPEC+ supply, leaving us in a weaker position today than…
 • 
Rory Johnston
4
What’s Driving OPEC’s Dovish Shift?
Accelerating supply hikes into a volatile US tariff-driven economic shock is a stark shift from OPEC+’s previous cautious and hawkish market support.
 • 
Rory Johnston
2
Public Report on Exceptional Western Canadian Crude Price Strength
Our new report with the Macdonald-Laurier Institute looks at how Canadian crude markets are as optimistic as they’ve been in months regarding US…
 • 
Rory Johnston
1
Canadian Crude Drops Tariff Discount
The relative price of Canadian heavy oil soared over the past week on bolstered prospects for broader US tariff exemptions, erasing a months-long…
 • 
Rory Johnston
OPEC Back and Relevant Again
OPEC+ surprised oil markets by announcing that the producer group was going ahead with the April start of planned production increases amounting to 2.5…
 • 
Rory Johnston
Iranian Maximum Pressure Redux
Trump’s stated goal of zeroing out Iranian oil exports is the oil market’s key bullish catalyst in 2025, but can it be done and what does it mean for…
 • 
Rory Johnston
Crude Mercantilism
The US exports roughly as much crude as it imports from Canada but at a higher average price, bolstering—not weakening—America’s overall trade position.
 • 
Rory Johnston
Trump Tariff Talk: No Easy Substitute for Canadian Crude
Trump’s threatened tariffs on Canadian oil risks injuring a symbiotic relationship that cannot be easily replicated with domestic or other international…
 • 
Rory Johnston
Oil in 2024: A Year of Fragile Stability
Crude prices declined modestly through 2024 but volatility eased, despite plenty of headline risk, as growth in both supply and demand slowed.
 • 
Rory Johnston
Tough Tariff Talk
Winners, losers, and how 25% US tariffs on Canadian and Mexican oil imports would reroute the flow of barrels across North America
 • 
Rory Johnston
2
© 2025 Commodity Context Corp.
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture