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Quick Context: OPEC’s Half-Hearted Delay
The producer group postponed planned cut easing at the last minute, supporting prices but delaying the inevitable.
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Rory Johnston
Fragile Libyan Oil Stability Shattered
Eastern-based rival government announces intention to shutter all production and block exports at a delicate moment for the global oil market and OPEC’s…
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Rory Johnston
2
Current Context—Oil in August 2024
Assessing our current, fundamentally oversold position in the context of the short- and medium-term oil market cycle, with near-term price risks tilted…
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Rory Johnston
How Large Are OPEC+ Production Cuts, Really?
Realized production cuts, at ~3-4 MMbpd vs Oct 2022 levels, are notably smaller than official quota cuts—but still more than enough to sink crude prices…
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Rory Johnston
China Sputtering
The world’s perennial fastest-growing source of petroleum consumption is seeing demand contract once again following last year’s historic recovery…
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Rory Johnston
Barrelling Ahead: OPEC’s Plan and Oil’s Next 18 Months
OPEC+’s conditional plan to ease production cuts theoretically returns a huge volume of crude next year but the market will not likely be positioned to…
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Rory Johnston
Pipeline from Perdition
The start-up of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline staves off yet another Western Canadian crude egress crisis and diversifies export…
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Rory Johnston
Quick Context: OPEC’s Sustainable Shift
The OPEC+ announcement is modestly near-term bearish vs prior expectation but puts the producer group on a far more sustainable production policy…
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Rory Johnston
OPEC’s Capacity for Confusion
OPEC+’s process of re-estimating member production capacities and baselines has the potential to fundamentally alter the producer group’s output…
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Rory Johnston
Diesel, The Mid Distillate
The world’s key industrial fuel is flashing warning signs for global oil demand.
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Rory Johnston
Crude Price Model: Impact of Realized Fundamentals
How much of the 2024 oil price rally can be ascribed to inventories alone?
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Rory Johnston
OPEC’s Price
It’ll take even higher oil prices to derail OPEC+ from its current production plans.
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Rory Johnston
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