Below the paywall you will find the latest monthly edition of the Commodity Context OPEC+ Data Deck (50-page PDF), tracking groupwide and member-level official production estimates, quotas, compliance, exports, and official production data reconciliation vs output implied by visible movements.
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Quota-participating OPEC+ crude production rose +966 kbpd in September according to official secondary source aggregate estimates published in OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), with the bulk of those gains coming from Saudi Arabia, which loaded aggressively in the Gulf for the first time since the beginning of the war, and Iraq, which recovered to 94% of prewar levels thanks to aggressive cargo discounting.
Iranian crude production continues to collapse, with estimated output falling 99 kbpd m/m to below 2 MMbpd in September for the first time since 2020 as the US blockade has reduced upstream output to the level of domestic use absent any material export avenues.
Total Middle Eastern oil production shut-ins today stand between 4 and 6 MMbpd based on the latest observed pace of exports following the recent apparent pullback in Hormuz transits, while total cumulative supply losses from the region through the war have risen to more than 2.3 billion barrels as of early October.
Middle Eastern OPEC exports rose substantially through September as oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz hit a wartime high, reducing export-implied production shut-ins to their lowest level of the war, at roughly 2 MMbpd excluding Iran and just more than 4 MMbpd including Iran. Given the recent spike in Iranian shipping attacks and subsequent apparent pullback in Hormuz flows, the latest estimate of shut-ins has risen to between 4 and 6 MMbpd. The total cumulative loss of Middle Eastern oil supply, relative to the prewar average level, has soared to 2.3 billion barrels as of early October.
[Full PDF Deck and additional analysis below paywall]