Global Oil Data Deck (April 2024)

Market remains tight in February as prolonged winter storm-related supply losses and OPEC+ cuts run into firm demand.

I rejoined Erik Townsend on the MacroVoices podcast to discuss oil market fundamentals, geopolitical risks, and the SPR—listen to that full episode for free here.

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This 62-page April 2024 edition of my monthly data-dense and visualization-heavy Global Oil Data Deck series (attached PDF below) is exclusive to paid Commodity Context subscribers.

This month’s report also features some exciting [and overdue] changes to both the supply and demand sections of the report, including the addition of several dashboards and exhibits that I have been using regularly as well as the elimination of some earlier, less useful charts. As per my cumulative approach, I’ve added relevant data from recent thematic research: Royal Oil, Iran’s Sanctioned Production Renaissance, Venezuela’s Temporary Turnaround, and How Real is Russia’s Production Cut?  

If you’re already subscribed and/or like the free summary bullets, hitting the LIKE button is one of the best ways to support my research.

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Overview

• Global liquids balance deficits eased slightly in February to 0.9 MMbpd from a bullishly revised 1.2 MMbpd deficit in January, with tightness driven by prolonged supply losses stemming from the North American winter storm in January and deeper OPEC+ cuts running into firm demand.

• Crude prices peaked out above $91/bbl (Brent) in early April before gradually— and then suddenly—pulling back to their current level of ~$87.50/bbl. Contracts have been driven higher primarily by an explosion of geopolitical risk concerns, which prompted both fundamental precautionary purchases and material speculative inflows—the challenge is always that geopolitically-driven rallies have a tendency to unwind should the worst not materialize.