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Commodity Context
Global Oil Data Deck (April 2024)

Global Oil Data Deck (April 2024)

Market remains tight in February as prolonged winter storm-related supply losses and OPEC+ cuts run into firm demand.

Rory Johnston's avatar
Rory Johnston
Apr 18, 2024
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Commodity Context
Commodity Context
Global Oil Data Deck (April 2024)
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I rejoined Erik Townsend on the MacroVoices podcast to discuss oil market fundamentals, geopolitical risks, and the SPR—listen to that full episode for free here.


This 62-page April 2024 edition of my monthly data-dense and visualization-heavy Global Oil Data Deck series (attached PDF below) is exclusive to paid Commodity Context subscribers.

This month’s report also features some exciting [and overdue] changes to both the supply and demand sections of the report, including the addition of several dashboards and exhibits that I have been using regularly as well as the elimination of some earlier, less useful charts. As per my cumulative approach, I’ve added relevant data from recent thematic research: Royal Oil, Iran’s Sanctioned Production Renaissance, Venezuela’s Temporary Turnaround, and How Real is Russia’s Production Cut?  

Become a paid subscriber view this full monthly oil market report—subscribe today to lock in at current prices before they rise on May 1st (read more) and join me in my hunt for ever-deeper oil & gas market context.

If you’re already subscribed and/or like the free summary bullets, hitting the LIKE button is one of the best ways to support my research.


Overview

  • Global liquids balance deficits eased slightly in February to 0.9 MMbpd from a bullishly revised 1.2 MMbpd deficit in January, with tightness driven by prolonged supply losses stemming from the North American winter storm in January and deeper OPEC+ cuts running into firm demand.

  • Crude prices peaked out above $91/bbl (Brent) in early April before gradually— and then suddenly—pulling back to their current level of ~$87.50/bbl. Contracts have been driven higher primarily by an explosion of geopolitical risk concerns, which prompted both fundamental precautionary purchases and material speculative inflows—the challenge is always that geopolitically-driven rallies have a tendency to unwind should the worst not materialize.

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