OPEC+ Data Deck (April 2025)
Quota participating OPEC+ output eased very slightly in March despite ongoing and worsening Kazakh overproduction; the group tripled pace of May output increase in face of macro headwind price pain.
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Quota participating OPEC+ crude production eased very slightly (-29 kbpd) to 34,039 kbpd in March as OPEC-9 declines were blunted by worsening Kazakh overproduction. Groupwide overproduction was steady at 391 kbpd (-2 kbpd m/m) in March, persisting around the worst level of oversupply since late-2020, as Kazakh compliance worsens despite improvements across most of the rest of the membership.
OPEC+ announced a tripling of its planned May production hike—from 135 kbpd to 410 kbpd—just one day after Trump shocked markets with steeper-than-anticipated “Liberation Day” tariffs. Regardless of reason, it’s undeniable that the producer group is taking a comparatively less cautious stance about potential negative price consequences—and this has supercharged trenchant and diverse opinions across the universe of market participants. Read our full write-up of this hugely important shift within the global oil market’s increasingly uncertain guardrail.
[Further analysis and full OPEC+ Data Deck PDF report below paywall]