Great read. I'm new here but would like for you to touch on the reasons the future contracts are still showing a reduced price and why that is thanks for your help
Mar 29, 2022·edited Mar 29, 2022Liked by Rory Johnston
Fantastic analysis of the incredibly complex and constantly evolving crude oil market.
I was reflecting this weekend that the reason I find crude oil spot prices (and more broadly strip pricing) so fascinating is because they involve countless considerations; some knowable inputs and some unknowable, some financial elements and some physical, a sprinkle of geopolitics and foreign policy.
As you summed up perfectly - "the oil market has always been a difficult one to forecast; but right now, it’s more-or-less impossible." Well said, Rory. Keep up the great work.
How likely is it hat the oil commerce is simply shuffled among producer and consumer and the net is not that large? It may take some time to implement new trading route
Thanks for the writeup. Please consider talking about mechanics (so to speak) and timing of degradation of Russia’s ability to produce as they deal with withdrawal of Western expertise, equipment and capital. I bet many of us would like to understand how, and how fast this occurs. Thx!
Given how tight the market was even before the Russian disruption, it seems even the mild case scenario of a 1M bbl/d should support much higher prices from here.
Great read. I'm new here but would like for you to touch on the reasons the future contracts are still showing a reduced price and why that is thanks for your help
Fantastic analysis of the incredibly complex and constantly evolving crude oil market.
I was reflecting this weekend that the reason I find crude oil spot prices (and more broadly strip pricing) so fascinating is because they involve countless considerations; some knowable inputs and some unknowable, some financial elements and some physical, a sprinkle of geopolitics and foreign policy.
As you summed up perfectly - "the oil market has always been a difficult one to forecast; but right now, it’s more-or-less impossible." Well said, Rory. Keep up the great work.
Most interesting
How likely is it hat the oil commerce is simply shuffled among producer and consumer and the net is not that large? It may take some time to implement new trading route
Great writeup, thanks a lot! I'm looking forward to the next part!
What I find really fascinating is just how finely tuned this market is and how well it balances supply and demand.
Thanks for the writeup. Please consider talking about mechanics (so to speak) and timing of degradation of Russia’s ability to produce as they deal with withdrawal of Western expertise, equipment and capital. I bet many of us would like to understand how, and how fast this occurs. Thx!
Appreciate the well written analysis. Look forward to learning more from your insights!
Thanks Rory. Good analysis. Lots of unknowns, but that’s the name of the game. I think tight oil markets will be with us for a while.
Great write up, Rory as usual!
Given how tight the market was even before the Russian disruption, it seems even the mild case scenario of a 1M bbl/d should support much higher prices from here.
Looking forward to part 2! Your input and thoughts are very much appreciated by this reactionary, discretionary, global macro trader. Cheers!
Good stuff, Rory.