Commodity Context

Commodity Context

Share this post

Commodity Context
Commodity Context
Oil Context Weekly (W20)
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More

Oil Context Weekly (W20)

Crude prices posted their first weekly gain in more than a month on easing US debt ceiling concerns and despite key calendar spreads that continue to highlight lackluster spot market conditions.

Rory Johnston's avatar
Rory Johnston
May 19, 2023
∙ Paid
21

Share this post

Commodity Context
Commodity Context
Oil Context Weekly (W20)
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
1
Share

Happy Friday,

Every week, I summarize the developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads, high-frequency inventories, refined products, and positioning data and then provide a taste of the themes I’m thinking about or following closely.

Become a paid subscriber today to view the full Oil Context Weekly report every Friday and join me in my hunt for ever-deeper oil & gas market context.

If you’re already subscribed and/or appreciate the free chart and summary, hitting the LIKE button is one of the best ways to support my ongoing research.


Summary

Flat Prices rose by $1.50/bbl to reach ~$76/bbl to mark the first weekly oil gain in more than a month, benefiting from renewed optimism re: the US debt ceiling standoff.

Calendar Spreads remain split; bellwether spreads, like Dec23/Dec24, are locked at the hip with flat prices and ended the week up, while prompt spreads weakened steadily through most of the week before finding a floor on Friday.

Inventories data were mixed but learned bearish as modest draws across Singapore (-0.9 MMbbl) and ARA Europe (-0.6 MMbbl) were swamped by a sizable build in commercial petroleum stocks in the US (+7.6 MMbbl), which was driven by the the largest increase in crude inventories in 3 months.

Refined Products strengthened this week with diesel cracks gaining ~$2/bbl and gasoline cracks gaining ~$6/bbl; year-to-date, we’ve seen diesel generally fall back to earth (from it’s absurd crisis-era heights), but the value of most other fuels including gasoline, high-sulphur fuel oil, LPG, and naphtha have all since recovered materially, unwinding much of the core imbalance that I discussed a few week’s ago in Refiners’ Unbalanced Barrel.

Positioning data confirmed the fourth consecutive week of speculative selling pressure in major crude contracts and the net position as a share of total open interest is within a hair of the mid-March low, tipping position normalization risk squarely to the upside.

SPR Solicitation Correction: In my hot take on the SPR refill solicitation, I raised a specific concern regarding what I thought to be a maximum price clause; I have since learned that the clause governs maximum contract value, such that the quantity, rather than the price, would be adjusted in an event of a big price move (i.e., to keep the total contract value from exceeding the budgeted amount).

What Happened This Week

This post is for paid subscribers

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 Commodity Context Corp.
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share

Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More