Global Oil Data Deck (May 2026)
The global liquids market flipped from protracted surpluses to the largest monthly average supply deficit on record in March, forcing the steepest ever drawdown in global stocks.
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Overview
The global liquids market flipped from protracted surpluses to the largest monthly average supply deficit on record in March, following the onset of the Iran War and the shuttering of the Strait of Hormuz. Global visible petroleum stockpiles drew at an equivalently record pace, though the full extent of those draws was blunted by the preexisting surplus and the initial Asian demand contraction, especially in China (if it was, indeed, a true demand decline—see: Chinese Demand Destruction or Strategic Supply).
Nonetheless, the rapid observed rate of inventory declines remains fundamentally unsustainable; while the buffers (e.g., oil on water, strategic inventories) have bought time, Hormuz must be reopened over the next month to avoid precariously low inventories and price spikes through the summer driving season.
The latest peace negotiation headlines are promising but previous efforts have collapsed on competing interpretations of the details; even the more optimistic leaks of the draft MOU indicate that it may be another month before Iran allows Hormuz transits to return to pre-war levels, even if a deal is signed soon.