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Commodity Context
Global Oil Data Deck (June 2025)

Global Oil Data Deck (June 2025)

Oil markets weakened further into the largest supply surplus in ~2 years in April— though much of that ended up in quasi-strategic Chinese stocks, which blunted the price effect of those builds.

Rory Johnston's avatar
Rory Johnston
Jun 26, 2025
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Commodity Context
Commodity Context
Global Oil Data Deck (June 2025)
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This 75-page June 2025 edition of my monthly data-dense and visualization-heavy Global Oil Data Deck series (attached PDF below) is exclusive to paid Commodity Context subscribers.

Become a paid subscriber today to view the full Global Oil Data Deck report and join me in my hunt for ever-deeper oil & gas market context.

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Overview

  • Global liquids balances loosened further in April to the largest supply surplus seen in nearly two years, reflecting stubbornly resilient non-OPEC supply and a Chinese-driven demand contraction. Inventory builds largely confirmed this surplus, with Chinese quasi-strategic inventories mopping up more than half the surplus and shielding the market from far steeper downside price pressure.

  • Brent crude prices rocketed into the low $80s on the back of an acute geopolitical risk premium following the eruption of the latest iteration of the Israel-Iran-[US] war; but, prices fell back into the high-$60s after Iran’s inherently de-escalatory counterattack against US bases in the region. While down more than $10/bbl from recent highs, crude is still up $3-4/bbl on the month and prompt timespreads continue to strengthen. The bizarre, smiley-faced futures curve—recently described in Oil’s Wrinkle In Time—was disrupted by the Iran shock but is back as of today.

[Full PDF Deck and Flow-Level Analysis Below Paywall]

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