Global Oil Data Deck (June 2025)
Oil markets weakened further into the largest supply surplus in ~2 years in April— though much of that ended up in quasi-strategic Chinese stocks, which blunted the price effect of those builds.
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Overview
Global liquids balances loosened further in April to the largest supply surplus seen in nearly two years, reflecting stubbornly resilient non-OPEC supply and a Chinese-driven demand contraction. Inventory builds largely confirmed this surplus, with Chinese quasi-strategic inventories mopping up more than half the surplus and shielding the market from far steeper downside price pressure.
Brent crude prices rocketed into the low $80s on the back of an acute geopolitical risk premium following the eruption of the latest iteration of the Israel-Iran-[US] war; but, prices fell back into the high-$60s after Iran’s inherently de-escalatory counterattack against US bases in the region. While down more than $10/bbl from recent highs, crude is still up $3-4/bbl on the month and prompt timespreads continue to strengthen. The bizarre, smiley-faced futures curve—recently described in Oil’s Wrinkle In Time—was disrupted by the Iran shock but is back as of today.
[Full PDF Deck and Flow-Level Analysis Below Paywall]