Global Oil Data Deck (December 2025)
Global liquids market balances loosened further in October and remained acutely oversupplied, with the observed surplus continuing to be validated by large global visible stock builds.
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Note: This latest edition of the report includes updates to the global visible stocks and commercial petroleum inventory exhibits to reflect analysis published in Oil’s Off-Balance-Sheet Glut.
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Overview
The global liquids market balance loosened modestly to 2.4 MMbpd in October from a downwardly revised 2.2 MMbpd in September, but the market is already materially long barrels and the surplus is only getting worse as we head into the winter weak stretch with global production growing at nearly 5x the pace of global demand.
Ongoing stock builds and the persistently weak fundamental outlook has continued to drag both flat crude prices and term structure lower, with prices falling to their lowest level since February 2021 before recovering and the very front of the futures curve continuing to flirt with contango—another bout of mid-month weakness that was once again that was once again shocked back to life with the Trump Administration’s declaration of a blockade of sanctioned Venezuelan tankers and the subsequent seizure of a growing number of them.
[Full PDF Deck and Flow-Level Analysis Below Paywall]