Rory, is it possible for you to share the source of your OECD oil inventory data. I am trying to find this on the EIA site and I might yet succeed, but have not had luck. I would like to follow this. Thank you for your missives. Sarah
thank you for your thoughts. can you please elaborate on rig count adjusted for efficiency? how is efficiency being defined here? bottom up rig metric or simply evaluating rigs per barrel oil produced?
"Total global investment into oil and gas exploration and production fell by 34% last year to $261 billion, the lowest since 2004, according to a December report from the International Energy Forum and the Boston Consulting Group.
Annual spending at that level won’t satisfy the world’s energy needs in the coming years, the report said. Even if the recovery in oil demand from the pandemic is only slight, the world would require 27 million barrels a day of new oil and gas supply by 2022 to offset production declines at existing fields.
Annual investment needs to be 25% higher over the next three years to stave off a supply crisis, the report estimated. That’s much faster than the pace of recovery after the 2014 to 2016 slump.
The coming year will be crucial in determining whether the industry is capable of rising to that challenge. The IEF report estimated that upstream investment would drop by another 20% in 2021, but prices have already rallied since it was published last year and “capex is likely to be higher than our initial estimates,” said Jamie Webster, senior director at the Boston Consulting Group."-https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-30/why-oil-companies-fall-from-favor-could-cause-next-price-spike
Rory, is it possible for you to share the source of your OECD oil inventory data. I am trying to find this on the EIA site and I might yet succeed, but have not had luck. I would like to follow this. Thank you for your missives. Sarah
thank you for your thoughts. can you please elaborate on rig count adjusted for efficiency? how is efficiency being defined here? bottom up rig metric or simply evaluating rigs per barrel oil produced?
"Total global investment into oil and gas exploration and production fell by 34% last year to $261 billion, the lowest since 2004, according to a December report from the International Energy Forum and the Boston Consulting Group.
Annual spending at that level won’t satisfy the world’s energy needs in the coming years, the report said. Even if the recovery in oil demand from the pandemic is only slight, the world would require 27 million barrels a day of new oil and gas supply by 2022 to offset production declines at existing fields.
Annual investment needs to be 25% higher over the next three years to stave off a supply crisis, the report estimated. That’s much faster than the pace of recovery after the 2014 to 2016 slump.
The coming year will be crucial in determining whether the industry is capable of rising to that challenge. The IEF report estimated that upstream investment would drop by another 20% in 2021, but prices have already rallied since it was published last year and “capex is likely to be higher than our initial estimates,” said Jamie Webster, senior director at the Boston Consulting Group."-https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-30/why-oil-companies-fall-from-favor-could-cause-next-price-spike