Quick Context: OPEC+’s Deep Papercut

Rollercoaster pre-meeting news flow yields to large 2 MMbpd headline cut, but extensive quota underproduction means an effective cut of less than half that volume

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• OPEC+ agreed to a 2 MMbpd headline cut to the producer group’s target crude output

• Chronic underproduction across OPEC+ (and basing the cut on typical quotas instead of current production) means that the effective cut will be less than half that amount, likely around 0.89 MMbpd.

• The politics around this meeting became especially fiery as the decision approached and today’s outcome is likely just the latest in an increasingly politicized tit-for-tat exchange in the world’s most important commodity market.