OPEC+ Data Deck (October 2024)
Group wide production falls in September on combination of Iraqi compliance progress and Libya’s export blockade, though member-level overproduction persists and Libya’s production has since rebounded
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Quota participating OPEC+ crude production fell another 187 kbpd to 33,812 kbpd in September, driven overwhelmingly by large Iraqi output reductions in line with Baghdad’s pledge to come back into compliance with quota commitments.
September was the first month of 2024 where aggregate OPEC+ output was below its combined quota, though all three chronic overproducing countries (IRQ/KAZ/RUS) continue to produce above quotas (even before including additional compensation cut commitments) and group-wide compliance only came on the back of many now chronically under producing members.
Libya’s export blockade prompted the largest reduction in OPEC+ output in September, but Libya is not subject to OPEC+ quotas and production is already rapidly rebounding after an early-October end of the political dispute over the central bank’s leadership.
[Further analysis and full OPEC+ Data Deck PDF report below paywall]