OPEC+ Data Deck (November '23)
More OPEC+ data to provide the fullest possible group-wide and member-level context behind today's meetings.
I’m excited to announce Commodity Context’s new OPEC+ Data Deck, which pulls together many of the key OPEC+-related factors I monitor and use in my analysis, including What’s A Cartel Gonna Do? published earlier this week
Below the paywall you will find the first edition of the OPEC+ Data Deck (34-page PDF), covering official production estimates, quotas, compliance, and exports. As with all Commodity Context Data Decks, this report will evolve over time alongside data availability and analytical need. The purpose of this Data Deck is to provide Commodity Context subscribers with a fuller context of aggregate and member-level trends within OPEC that are driving current and future negotiations.
Become a paid subscriber today to view the full OPEC+ Data Deck report and join me in my hunt for ever-deeper oil & gas market context.
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Summary and About The Deck
The latest chatter out of the OPEC+ meetings ocurring online this morning is that Saudi Arabia is gaining ground in its efforts to get the rest of the producer group to pitch in additional cuts—word on the street is in the ballpark of 1 MMbpd—to help share the burden that has for much of the past year been shouldered overwhelmingly by Riyadh. I’ll absoultely have more comments about how today’s negotiations progress in tomorrow’s Oil Context Weekly.
After a pandemic-era cut OPEC+ cut region that has for the past two years been defined by chronic underproduction, we’re now entering a phase where some major producers are overproducing their OPEC+ quotas.
When going through the deck below, pay special attention to members that are beginning to see compliance slip (e.g., Iraq and the UAE) as well as members where contentious baseline revisions have been part of the official narrative behind the cuts (Nigeria and Angola).
Group-wide and country-level reporting also incorporates independent export estimates to provide additional colour to ongoing debates regarding potential production understatement—some of these dislocations reflect legitimate growth in non-crude liquids (NGLs and condensate) as well as pipeline-to-seaborne export switching in the case of Russia, while others have fueled widening member-level production estimates between major market watchers.
[Full 34-Page OPEC+ Data Deck PDF Below Paywall]