OPEC+ Data Deck (May 2026)
Crude output slips further to fresh 35-year low for OPEC as the full impact of Hormuz-necessitated wellhead shut-ins hit the tape, and the UAE departs OPEC in biggest unity blow since group’s founding
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced on April 28th that it would be leaving OPEC effective May 1st. Accordingly, this is the last OPEC+ Data Deck that will include inclusive coverage of the UAE’s production through April in the context of OPEC quotas and the group’s broader production policy.
Below the paywall you will find the latest monthly edition of the Commodity Context OPEC+ Data Deck (50-page PDF), tracking groupwide and member-level official production estimates, quotas, compliance, exports, and official production data reconciliation vs output implied by visible movements.
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Quota participating OPEC+ crude production fell another -1,625 kbpd m/m to 26,558 kbpd in April, according to official OPEC secondary source aggregate data, which represents a fresh 35-year low for OPEC and a new all-time bottom for the larger OPEC+ group; monthly declines largely reflected the fact that Hormuz-driven shut-ins affected all of April versus only roughly three-quarters of March operations.
In late-April the UAE announced that it would be exiting OPEC effective May 1st, likely driven by a desire to monetize substantial unutilized production capacity, political outrage regarding its disproportionate share of attacks from Iran without any added protection, and leveraging the rare opportunity of the Iran War during which a quotaless UAE won’t immediately mean more production into a weak market as it would have as recently as February; endless premature obituaries have been written about OPEC over the decades and the producer group will likely find a way through this episode as well, but make no mistake that this Emirati departure is the most serious
[Full PDF Deck and additional analysis below paywall]