OPEC+ Data Deck (March 2025)
Quota participating OPEC+ output shot higher in February and groupwide quota compliance hit its worst level in years as Kazakh production rose to its highest level since late-2019.
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Quota participating OPEC+ crude production rocketed higher (+316 kbpd m/m) to 34,039 kbpd in February, the highest level since last July, on the back of soaring Kazakh output, which rose well above its agreed upon target to its highest level since late-2019.
Groupwide overproduction hit +364 kbpd vs. the collective target in February, which is the highest level of overproduction since the end of 2020 (i.e., when the COVID output cut agreement was still in its early stages); overproduction was led by Kazakhstan, which marked its highest ever overproduction, and Iraq as well as rising overproduction from Nigeria and the UAE—excluding those four, the rest of OPEC+ underproduced their aggregate quota by 220 kbpd.
OPEC+ surprised oil markets by announcing intentions to move ahead with its planned output hike; OPEC+ will slowly and steadily increase crude production by roughly 2.5 MMbpd (2.2 MMbpd cut unwind, 0.3 MMbpd UAE baseline upgrade) over 18 months beginning in April; as always, OPEC+ leadership stressed that the production hike plan could be paused or reversed based on market conditions.
[Further analysis and full OPEC+ Data Deck PDF report below paywall]