OPEC+ Data Deck (March 2024)
OPEC+ Data Deck (March 2024)
OPEC+ production was roughly flat in February, exceeding group-wide quotas for the second consecutive month on enduring Iraqi and Kazakh overproduction.
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Summary
Quota-participating OPEC+ crude production was roughly flat in February, rising just 40 kbpd m/m to 34.47 MMbpd as most member output remained effectively unchanged—including from members like Iraq and Kazakhstan that had committed to reducing production to make up for January overproduction… and clearly did not.
Group-wide production exceeded official quotas, set at 34.32 MMbpd in February, for the second month in a row, this time by 160 kbpd. Prior to the latest round of cuts and baseline restatements, OPEC+ members had not collectively overproduced their agreed-upon quotas since 2020 and, rather, enormously underproduced targets with said underproduction underpinning the crude price rally in mid-2022.
Iraq and Kazakhstan continue to be the most egregious overproducers within the group, pumping 210 kbpd and 110 kbpd, respectively, above their February quotas. This is in spite of their commitments, as I outlined in last month’s report, to not only address overproduction but to even underproduce in February and March to make up for the January shortfall. Now, it’s worth noting that Kazakhstan simply said it would make up for any overproduction, while Iraq voiced its ongoing disagreement with third-party production estimates that show Iraq to be overproducing since Summer 2023. While there are some notable differences in production estimates (see UAE/Nigeria) for OPEC members, all major agencies agree on Iraq’s current overproduction.
Nigerian crude output rose for the third consecutive month to reach 1,476 kbpd, now just shy of its 1,500 kbpd quota that took effect in 2024. Prior to the restatement of Nigeria’s production baseline (agreed to in late-2023 and effective January 2024), the West African producer’s production quota was set at 1,742 kbpd; but, it hadn’t managed to hit that level since early-2020. Nigeria’s quota was then lowered to reflect effective production capacity, although the country has since made substantial gains from lows of nearly 1 MMbpd in late-2022.
[Full 34-Page OPEC+ Data Deck PDF Below Paywall]