OPEC+ Data Deck (July 2026)
Middle Eastern crude production jumps in June alongside post-MOU spike in Hormuz traffic and dependent Persian Gulf loadings, though the latest wave of attacks threatens to reverse that progress.
Below the paywall you will find the latest monthly edition of the Commodity Context OPEC+ Data Deck (53-page PDF), tracking groupwide and member-level official production estimates, quotas, compliance, exports, and official production data reconciliation vs output implied by visible movements.
If you’re already subscribed and/or like the free summary bullets, hitting the LIKE button is one of the best ways to support my research.
Quota participating OPEC+ crude oil production rose +1,183 kbpd m/m to average 26,177 kbpd in June, the highest level since February 2026 immediately preceding the onset of the Iran War.
However, these production increases are entirely dependent on the continued recovery in crude oil loadings in the Persian Gulf, which has begun to roll over alongside the ramp in US-Iranian tit-for-tat strikes and the renewed collapse of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
The producer group continued to lift its production quota by 188 kbpd for August, leaving only one remaining monthly hike until the second 1.66 MMbpd production cut tranche (initially announced April 2023) is completely unwound; the next question will be how quickly OPEC+ rolls into an unwinding of the final remaining cut—the only official all-member cut—of 2 MMbpd that was initially announced in October 2022, an unwind that could begin as soon as October.
[Full PDF Deck and additional analysis below paywall]