OPEC+ Data Deck (January 2025)
Quota participating OPEC+ output fell in December as compliance continues to improve, while quota-exempt Libya lifted output to a near 12-year high.
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Quota participating OPEC+ crude production fell 79 kbpd m/m to 33,613 in December, reversing some of November’s uptick, while further growth in Libyan output—which rose to a fresh nearly 12-year high—blunted total OPEC+ declines.
Groupwide December output fell below the combined obligations of quotas and compensation cuts for the first time this year (November production estimates upgraded, reversing that previously-reported achievement), though that headline figure continues to be split between notable pockets of over- and underproduction.
The latest re-strengthening of the crude market—both flat prices and term structure—is once again raising hopes that OPEC+ may finally have a window of opportunity to return some of its withheld barrels as currently planned later this year, but the producer group has had its optimism dashed so frequently over the past year that it is likely to err on the side of caution before beginning the cut-easing process which—following unending delays—has the potential to sour fragile market sentiment anew.
[Further analysis and full OPEC+ Data Deck PDF report below paywall]