OPEC Data Deck (January 2024)

Quota-participating OPEC+ crude production rose slightly in December, driven largely by gains in Nigeria, Iraq, and Kazakhstan, which together offset smaller declines seen across most other members.

Below the paywall you will find the latest edition of the Commodity Context OPEC+ Data Deck (35-page PDF), covering official production estimates, quotas, compliance, and exports.

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Summary

• Quota-participating OPEC+ crude production rose 31 kbpd m/m to 35.86 MMbpd in December, which is still roughly 1 MMbpd below its formal quota—but do keep in mind that those quotas will shift in January with the latest cuts and baseline adjustments.

• OPEC-10 output rose by 79 kbpd on the month to 22.72MMbpd, driven by Nigerian (+99 kbpd) and Iraqi (+23 kbpd) gains.

• Meanwhile, Non-OPEC output declined by 48 kbpd to 13.13 MMbpd; declines across Russia (-27 kbpd) and Bahrain (-30 kbpd) output could only be partially offset by the 33 kbpd increase in Kazakh production.

• Exempted OPEC+ member output fell by 7 kbpd m/m to 5.11 MMbpd as declines led by Iran (-11 kbpd) more than swallowed an increase in Venezuelan output (+7 kbpd)

• Angola’s departure from OPEC poses a real annoyance for analysts: how best to extract Angola on a go-forward basis while maintaining its presence in historical analysis; Angola is still included in this edition of the report but will be phased out over future editions. On that note, the African producer’s departure will likely help narrow group-wide underproduction given Angola’s more than 300 kbpd underproduction at latest count. OPEC’s total membership is reduced to 12 and cut-participating membership to 9; while a major shift for the organization, it didn’t come as a complete surprise after months of clear discontent surrounding the OPEC Secretariat’s efforts to materially reduce Angola’s production baseline following years of underproduction (Read more of my thoughts on the topic in Oil Context Weekly (W51) and my BNN Bloomberg interview). 

• With 2023 now in the rearview mirror, initial estimates have quota-participating OPEC+ output down 1.5 MMbpd y/y, at 36.6 MMbpd on average, in 2023. OPEC-10 accounts for fully 1.3 MMbpd of those cuts (and Saudi alone 0.9 MMbpd); however, these annual averages flatten considerable nuance given the volatility of OPEC+ policy over the course of the past two years. In reality, output rose rapidly through 2022 to balance what was perceived at the time to be an acute supply shortfall and then fell just as quickly through 2023 to offset gangbusters non-OPEC+ production growth.

[Full 35-Page OPEC+ Data Deck PDF Below Paywall]