OPEC+ Data Deck (February 2025)
Quota participating OPEC+ output fell in January heading into the group’s decision re: whether to follow through on current April production hike plans or once again delay—for the fourth time in a row
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Summary
Quota participating OPEC+ crude production fell 62 kbpd m/m to 33,681 kbpd in January, as broad declines were blunted by ongoing Kazakh gains.
Groupwide output sat 19 kbpd above OPEC+’s aggregate production target in January, while upgrades to output estimates in November and December reversed the previously reported achievement of reducing output to below quota levels for the first time in 2024; while Russian output fell below target for the first time in nearly a year, Iraqi and Kazakh output remains well above committed levels and overall compliance continues to be subsidized by chronic underproduction across many smaller members.
OPEC+ chatter is once again getting louder ahead of the group’s decision on whether or not to follow through on the planned April start to the production hiking cycle, with Russia’s Novak stating that those plans remain unchanged; However we’ve heard similarly strong statements before and this pattern of last-minute delays mean that we’re not going to know for sure what’s happening with OPEC+ output until the first week of March (likely before March 5th). We’ve also already started to hear OPEC+ sources publicly fret about “trade uncertainty” related to Trump’s tariff threats, which is the likeliest pretext for another output hike delay.
[Further analysis and full OPEC+ Data Deck PDF report below paywall]