OPEC+ Data Deck (December '23)
Quota-participating OPEC+ member crude output fell ~150 kbpd in November.
Below the paywall you will find the latest edition of the Commodity Context OPEC+ Data Deck (35-page PDF), covering official production estimates, quotas, compliance, and exports. The inaugural edition was released two weeks ago ahead of the most recent round of OPEC+ meetings, but I’ll typically aim to publish this report mid-month with fresh data.
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Summary
Quota-participating OPEC+ crude production fell ~150 kbpd m/m to 35.95 MMbpd in November, roughly 1 MMbpd below its formal quota.
OPEC-10 output fell by 113 kbpd on the month to 22.75MMbpd, driven by declines in Iraq (-77 kbpd), Angola (-38 kbpd), and Nigeria (-18 kbpd), only partially offset by a modest increase in Kuwaiti output (+19 kbpd).
Non-OPEC output declined by 33 kbpd to 13.2 MMbpd, driven by lower Russian and Kazakh supplies.
Exempted OPEC+ member output rose 51 kbpd m/m to 5.09 MMbpd, with gains driven by Venezuela and Libya rather than Iran, which has driven the vast bulk of year-to-date gains.
Interestingly, there was a notable split this month between the data for core OPEC-10 members as calculated off the secondary sources vs direct communication with the Secretariat—for instance, the combined monthly output change of Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Iraq, and Angola was a reduction of 119 kbpd based on secondary source estimates, whereas direct communication between these members and the OPEC Secretariat indicates a much larger monthly pullback of 381 kbpd. I’ve also added a slide to specifically track these descrepancies on page 5 of Data Deck below.
The latest OPEC+ deal initially discussed in What’s A Cartel Gonna Do? and post-gamed in Oil [and OPEC] Context Weekly (W48) is expected to reduce effective OPEC+ production by ~500 kbpd beginning in January, roughly reflecting the ~700 kbpd of incremental cuts (excluding Saudi Arabia and Russia) secured at the latest OPEC+ meetings less the 200 kbpd upgrade to the UAE’s baseline.
[Full 35-Page Detailed OPEC+ Data Deck PDF Below Paywall]