OPEC+ Data Deck (August 2024)

Group production rose on Saudi normalization and yet more Iraqi overproduction, while demand growth forecast downgrade (finally) provides first sign of OPEC+’s softening toward October cut easing plan

Below the paywall you will find the latest monthly edition of the Commodity Context OPEC+ Data Deck (34-page PDF), tracking group-wide and member-level production estimates, quotas, compliance, and exports.

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• Quota-participating OPEC+ crude production rose 144 kbpd m/m in July as Saudi output recovered from prior under-target pumping and Iraq’s chronic overproduction problem worsened despite the start of promised compensation cuts.

• OPEC finally began downgrading its global liquids demand growth forecasts for this year and next after holding a well above consensus outlook completely unchanged for more than a year—though while this seems obviously bearish, the true impact is likely more modestly bullish if it reflects OPEC+’s falling faith in market strength, which could push the producer group to adjust or postpone its planned production cut easing scheduled to begin in October.

[Further analysis and full OPEC+ Data Deck PDF report below paywall]