OPEC+ Data Deck (April 2026)
Expanded producer group crude output fell to an all time low in March driven by the Hormuz closure and forced Gulf shut-ins; original OPEC output fell to the lowest level since Desert Storm in 1990.
We now have our first official OPEC+ production data that extends into the Iran War and reflects the monthly average supply losses across major Gulf producers driven by the stoppage of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This is a COVID-level chart-blow-up event, so please enjoy the attached Data Deck visualizing OPEC+ supply loss like you’ve never seen it before, as well as some higher frequency charts tracking shut-ins and the ongoing stoppage of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz despite the current ceasefire.
Below the paywall you will find the latest monthly edition of the Commodity Context OPEC+ Data Deck (50-page PDF), tracking groupwide and member-level official production estimates, quotas, compliance, exports, and official production data reconciliation vs output implied by visible movements.
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Quota participating OPEC+ crude production fell -7,587 kbpd m/m to 28,312 kbpd in March, according to official OPEC secondary source aggregate data. This is the second-largest monthly production decline on record behind only the emergency OPEC+ cut in May 2020. In addition, this marks a fresh, all-time crude production low for the expanded producer group and, for the original OPEC members, this represents the lowest aggregate crude output since Operation Desert Storm in 1990.
Despite the announcement of a ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed (see chart above); talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad over the weekend failed to result in any agreement. In response, Trump announced that the US would be blockading Iranian exports through the Strait going forward, further choking what little flow was still managing to get through Hormuz to global markets.
[Full PDF Deck and additional analysis below paywall]