OPEC+ Data Deck (April 2024)
OPEC+ Data Deck (April 2024)
OPEC+ production fell slightly in March, but declines were mostly unrelated to the producer group’s ongoing overproduction compliance challenges.
Below the paywall you will find the latest monthly edition of the Commodity Context OPEC+ Data Deck (34-page PDF), tracking group-wide and member-level production estimates, quotas, compliance, and exports.
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Summary
Quota-participating OPEC+ crude production fell 60 kbpd in March to 34.4 MMbpd, with most of that reduction coming from Sudan and South Sudan, which reduced production due to war-related damage on the primary pipeline both members use to get their crude to the coast (more on that below).
Group-wide production exceeded official quotas, set at 34.32 MMbpd in March, for the third month in a row, though by a slightly reduced 90 kbpd. Iraq and Kazakhstan remain the worst offenders, with the pair overproducing their agreed upon quotas by 200 kbpd and 110 kbpd, respectively, in March. While most other members remain within reasonably good standing, industry watchers have begun to sound the alarm on slipping compliance in both Kuwait and the UAE, though the concern isn’t universal and hasn’t yet translated into problematic production figures in the Secondary Source Aggregate estimates published by OPEC. Prior to the latest round of cuts and baseline restatements, OPEC+ members had not collectively overproduced their agreed-upon quotas since 2020 and, rather, enormously underproduced targets with said underproduction underpinning the crude price rally in mid-2022.
Compliance remains a persistent problem and OPEC+ leadership isn’t backing down from at least trying to make it seem like it’s “being dealt with”. OPEC+’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) has told members who overproduced in the first quarter of 2024 that they have until April 30 to submit compensation plans—essentially exactly how they plan to make up for the overproduction by underproducing over May and June. For instance, Iraq stated last month that it would reduce exports to 3.3 MMbpd (just more than 100 kbpd lower than today), though there hasn’t been much movement on this goal.
Sudan (-20 kbpd, ~50%) and South Sudan (-40 kbpd, ~33%) saw production collapse following war-related stoppages on the main pipeline carrying crude to the coast. Sudan’s Minister of Petroleum “declared force majeure on deliveries of oil through the pipeline to a terminal near Port Sudan on the Red Sea coast, according to a letter seen by Reuters. Flows had already been reduced earlier in February, but after those issues were sorted a major rupture occurred on the line. South Sudan’s Information Minister told S&P Global Commodity Insight that “[a]n amalgamation of factors has derailed our efforts to take crude to international markets but attacks on the pipeline by Sudan conflict, conflict in [the] Red Sea, and delays in shipping at the sea have affected us greatly.”
[Full 34-Page OPEC+ Data Deck PDF Below Paywall]