Oil Context Weekly (W7)
Crude prices rose on more notable Russian sanctions impacts before falling on news that Trump and Putin have begun bilaterally negotiating an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
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Summary
Flat Prices were effectively unchanged: Brent crude settled around $74.70/bbl, up only a few cents from last Friday’s close; however, the week was a roller coaster as prices gained through Monday and Tuesday on signs of more notable Russian sanctions effects, fell back on Wednesday and Thursday following news of Trump’s call with Putin regarding a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine, rose Friday morning, and finally fell back to where they started.
Timespreads weakened across the board but global benchmark Brent held up better than WTI, backwardation of which fell to within a hair of contango.
Inventories data was mixed between builds in the US and Singapore and a draw in ARA Europe; US stocks of the big-3 fuels continue to track normal patterns, albeit below trailing seasonal norms; European gasoline stocks finally pulled back from last week’s all-time-highs; and Singaporean road fuels continue to build.
Refined Products strengthened in contrast to more beleaguered crude, with both US gasoline and diesel cracks spreads rising above seasonal norms though still lower than this time last year.
Market Positioning data revealed that speculators were once again net sellers of crude contracts over the past week-through-Tuesday; while speculative positioning remains overbought, we’re gradually coming back to a more sustainable level and the fact that prices gained slightly over the sample period demonstrates the market's resilience to the withdrawal of this hot money.
As Well As Trump and Putin began bilaterally negotiating an end to the war in Ukraine—with potentially wide-ranging impacts for the oil market—and India committed to buy more US oil and gas in an effort to avoid US tariffs.