Oil Context Weekly (W12)
Crude prices rise as hot money flows return to the barrel and the US sanctions Chinese buyer of Iranian crude for the first time, though crude term structure remained largely unchanged.
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Summary
Flat Prices ended the week $1.50/bbl higher, building on last week’s meagre gains to mark the first real weekly move higher in nearly two months as speculative capital returned to the crude market and sanctions
Timespreads were largely unchanged at the front of major benchmark curves, with prompt spreads flat on the week and confirming a lack of fundamental developments affecting physical market pressures.
Inventories data was split between builds in the US and Singapore offset by draws in ARA Europe; at the product level, crude stocks continue their seasonal replenishment while diesel inventories fall rapidly and gasoline stocks remain stubbornly high.
Refined Products markets were flat to stronger on the week, with diesel seeing more of a boost—supported by falling stockpiles across major global hubs—than gasoline, stocks of which remain amply supplied.
Investor Positioning data confirmed that speculators were net buyers of crude contracts over the past week-through-Tuesday, increasing their net position as a share of total open interest for the first time in nearly two months; this move confirms that hot money flows have shifted from crude’s primary headwind back to a tailwind, though the lackluster price response to those returning speculative buyers provides an early cause for caution.
As Well As OPEC+ announces new, broader and deeper for longer compensation cuts; Kazakh production continues to rise despite March cut pledge; Trump admin likely to extend Chevron deadline in Venezuela; US Treasury sanctions Chinese oil entities over Iranian trade; Canadian crude exports to US tumble on tariff uncertainty; and Canadians heading into federal election as national oil and gas policy debate heats up.