Oil Context Weekly (W11)
Crude prices marked a modest gain, breaking the longest weekly loss streak in a decade, while term structure remained firm and the rapid outflow of speculative positions finally reversed.
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Summary
Flat Prices gained very modestly this week, with Brent hanging on above $70/bbl and WTI breaking its longest weekly losing streak in a decade on the back of still-firm fundamentals and a reversal of hot money flows back into crude contracts.
Timespreads across all major crude grades were flat to stronger, maintaining modest backwardation across the entire crude complex and continuing to push back on claims of creeping fundamental weakness.
Inventories data was mixed between a solid draw in the US, a build in Singapore, and virtually no movement in ARA Europe; refined products drew while crude built across both the US and ARA Europe; and Singaporean stocks bounced as shipping bunker fuels rebounded from precipitously low levels witnessed last week.
Refined Products were split between a re-strengthening in gasoline and further weakness in diesel, with crack spreads for the former gaining nearly $2/bbl this week, supported by strong US stock draws, and the latter falling by roughly $2/bbl to below both the seasonal norm and year-ago levels.
Market Positioning data revealed that speculators were net buyers of crude contracts for the first week in seven, breaking a selling streak that weighed down the barrel over the better part of the past two months; going forward, the anticipated rotation back into crude will shift hot money flows from crude’s greatest headwind to a solid tailwind over the coming weeks.
As Well As Trump team takes victory lap on falling oil prices; Russian supplies continue to slip amidst ceasefire back-and-forth; Trump sends letter to Iran and Supreme Leader says no thanks to negotiations; Canadian crude drops its US tariff discount; a surprisingly quiet CERAWeek for crude; IEA pivots back to urging oil and gas investment; and Canada gets a new Prime Minister.