Oil Context Weekly (W40)
Crude had its largest weekly gain since March and seems to have slipped its macro leash on the back of OPEC+’s decision to cut production
Welcome to Oil Context Weekly, my less formal wrap-up of the market analysis, news flow, and data releases that matter.
Become a paid subscriber today to view the full Oil Context Weekly report and join me in my hunt for ever-deeper oil & gas market context.
If you’re already subscribed and/or appreciate the free chart and summary, hitting the LIKE button is one of the best ways to support my ongoing research.
Flat prices rose roughly $10/bbl from last week’s close to ~$98/bbl (Brent) as of writing—their largest weekly gain since March—following OPEC+’s first material production cut since early-2020; perhaps more notable than the price gain itself, oil managed to rise alongside the US dollar.
Calendar spreads had a relatively uneventful week despite the OPEC+ kerfuffle and rising flat prices, with both the prompt and bellwether Dec/Dec spread widening marginally but mostly trading sideways through the week.
Inventories fell by their fastest pace of the year in the US last week; however, smaller builds in Europe and Singapore mitigated some of the total global draw.
Crack spreads widened across North America while global diesel markets flashed signs of extreme tightness amidst low inventories, a heavy refinery maintenance schedule in Europe, and still-ongoing French refinery strikes.
Positioning data indicated that speculative participants were net-buyers through this past Tuesday heading into the OPEC+ meeting, with the net speculative position rising to its highest share of total open interest since June.