Oil Context Weekly (W39)
Oil Context Weekly (W39)
First up week in a month closes first down quarter since the start of the pandemic.
Welcome to Oil Context Weekly, my more informal wrap-up of the market analysis, news flow, and data releases that matter.
If you’re already subscribed and/or appreciate the free chart and summary, hitting the LIKE button is one of the best ways to support my ongoing research.
Summary
Flat prices ended the week higher for the first time since mid-August, but closed the quarter down for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic.
Calendar spreads widened further, with the bellwether Dec22/Dec23 spread moving from around $8.50/bbl to end the week above $10/bbl.
Inventories were also supportive and all major regions reversed last week’s across-the-board stock build with a roughly equivalent drawdown.
Crack spreads widened, likely reflecting both last week’s product inventory draws and, more acutely, a strike impacting more than half of French refining capacity.
Positioning data confirmed last week’s large speculative paper liquidation, with long managed money positions falling by 15.9 MMbbl and short positions rising by 11.6 MMbbl for a net position reduction of 27.5 MMbbl.