Oil Context Weekly (W19)
Crude prices chopped sideways as they tried to find their bearings, but ultimately ended lower alongside continued curve flattening and crack spread weakness.
Every week, I summarize developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads, high-frequency inventories, refined products, and positioning data, as well as a taste of the themes I’ve been thinking about or following closely.
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Summary
Flat Prices ended down but effectively flat, bouncing between ~$81.50-84.50/bbl as the barrel tried to find some sense of direction.
Calendar Spreads re-widened alongside the flat price rally on Wednesday, indicating some fundamental support, but ultimately re-narrowed to end down and continue the prior weeks’ flattening trend; WTI spreads remained stronger and slightly wider on the week.
Inventories were mixed but leaned bullish, with crude-driven stock draws in the US and ARA Europe outweighing a fuel oil-driven build in Singapore.
Refined Products continued to see a reversal of fortune between gasoline, which is now weakening, and diesel, which had been hammered but is seemingly finding its footing.
Investor Positioning data confirmed the largest weekly net spec crude sales since the early-2023 US regional banking crisis over the past week-through-Tuesday; while positions may still slide further from here given speculators porosity to overshoot on both the upside a downside, we are likely nearing the end of in this spec cycle
As Well As the week’s Russo-centric OPEC+ chatter, the resumption of US SPR refill efforts, and new research on nominal price triggers for media pump price concerns.