North American Oil Data Deck (September 2024)
Continental liquids output maintained strong growth momentum in June while demand reversed May strength for a weak start to driving season consumption.
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North American total liquids output bounced back in June on seasonal Canadian gains to 29.4 MMbpd, which is 1.24 MMbpd higher y/y and brings second quarter growth to average 1.37 MMbpd y/y; US growth continues to gradually slow but remains dominant at more than 1 MMbpd y/y in Q2, which, together with strong 0.4 MMbpd y/y growth in Canada, more than offset ongoing declines in Mexican output.
Refinery activity continued to rise seasonally, returning to y/y growth thanks to a fresh post-pandemic high-water mark for US product output; Mexican refinery throughput flipped back to positive territory while Canadian output continues to contract.
Continental petroleum product consumption reversed May strength, falling ~400 kbpd kbpd m/m and more than 700 kbpd y/y to 24.5 MMbpd in June; US growth drove the decline, falling from the strongest May on record to the weakest June since the depths of COVID in 2020.
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