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North American petroleum liquids production rose +526 kbpd to 31,820 kbpd in July, +843 kbpd compared to the same month last year. While US crude production hit a fresh, all-time high in July, the overall pace of y/y continental output growth continues to decelerate despite the high price environment.
Refining runs across the continent are +207 kbpd y/y as refiner incentives (i.e., crack spreads) keep every facility pumping at full tilt for as long as owners can keep the facilities online.
North American petroleum product consumption rose (+241 kbpd m/m) seasonally in July; but, overall demand was down (-558 kbpd) as consumers retrenched amidst the exceptionally-high product pricing wrought by the Iran War and Russian refining crisis.
Western Canadian Select (WCS) crude differentials in Hardisty, Alberta, widened to more than $25/bbl under WTI and to more than $16/bbl in Houston, the widest levels since November 2023 and January 2023, respectively. This widening is being driven by both quality-related market weakness, connected to an increasingly oversupplied USGC fuel oil market, as well as the exploding cost of shipping given that marginal WCS barrels are exported to Asia.
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