North American Oil Data Deck (October ‘24)

July was especially bullish in North America as a ubiquitous reacceleration of continental demand growth ran into slowing production gains.

This 34-page October 2024 edition of my monthly data-dense and visualization-heavy North American Oil Data Deck (attached PDF below paywall) is exclusive to paid Commodity Context subscribers. The deck contains detailed, decomposed accounting for US, Canadian, and Mexican upstream (i.e., production), downstream (i.e., refining) oil activity, and end-user demand.

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Summary

• North American total liquids output was effectively flat (+15 kbpd m/m) in July at 29.4 MMbpd, up 840 kbpd y/y in a marked deceleration of growth that has averaged a much brisker 1.2 MMbpd over the trailing quarter. Slower US production gains are driving the bulk of that deceleration, though weaker Canadian growth has also contributed and contracting Mexican output remains a net drag on continental supplies.

• Continental consumption, meanwhile, roared back to life, rising 360 kbpd m/m and a whopping 687 kbpd y/y to 24.92 MMbpd in July; demand in the US, Canada, and Mexico are all materially accelerating—in the US’ case, from modest growth to strong growth and, in Canada and Mexico, from outright contraction back to net gains.

[Full PDF Deck and Country-Level Analysis Below Paywall]