North American Oil Data Deck (October ‘24)
July was especially bullish in North America as a ubiquitous reacceleration of continental demand growth ran into slowing production gains.
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Summary
North American total liquids output was effectively flat (+15 kbpd m/m) in July at 29.4 MMbpd, up 840 kbpd y/y in a marked deceleration of growth that has averaged a much brisker 1.2 MMbpd over the trailing quarter. Slower US production gains are driving the bulk of that deceleration, though weaker Canadian growth has also contributed and contracting Mexican output remains a net drag on continental supplies.
Continental consumption, meanwhile, roared back to life, rising 360 kbpd m/m and a whopping 687 kbpd y/y to 24.92 MMbpd in July; demand in the US, Canada, and Mexico are all materially accelerating—in the US’ case, from modest growth to strong growth and, in Canada and Mexico, from outright contraction back to net gains.
[Full PDF Deck and Country-Level Analysis Below Paywall]