North American Oil Data Deck (November ‘23)
Continental petroleum liquids output narrowly sets another fresh all-time high as US crude production finally sets a new high-water mark, offsetting a pullback in Canadian output.
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North American total liquids production narrowly reset an all-time high of 28.75 MMbbl in August as fresh all-time high US output, driven by a new post-pandemic crude output record, offset a pullback in Canadian output. Year-to-date continental liquids output was 1.85 MMbpd higher y/y, pulling year-to-date annual average growth to 1.7 MMbpd.
North American refined product output rose 181 kbpd m/m to 23.2 MMbpd, the highest level since the summer of 2019 prior to the wave of pandemic-induced refinery closures.
Continental demand roared higher on the back of a surge in US distillates consumption, rising 832 kbpd m/m to 25.7 MMbpd, a fresh pandemic-era high and the highest level since August 2019; annual demand growth has averaged nearly 200 kbpd year-to-date.
Note: important detailed comments below regarding 1) the EIA’s crude supply adjustment and tight oil decomposition data, and 2) the ongoing process of re-adding previously omitted official Suncor production data to Canadian oil sands balances.