North American Oil Data Deck (July 2024)
US and Canadian production growth remains robust while continental consumption of core transportation fuels remains under clear pressure.
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North American total liquids output was effectively flat in April, at 29.4 MMbpd, caught between a seasonal pullback in Canadian production and the ongoing recovery in US tight oil supplies following January’s winter storm-driven pullback; output remains 1.6 MMbpd higher y/y with US growth slowing slightly (+1.3 MMbpd y/y), Mexican production rolling over (now -0.2 MMbpd y/y), and Canadian growth accelerating to ~0.5MMbpd y/y.
Refinery activity was also stagnant on the month, representing a notable 174 kbpd y/y pullback in activity driven primarily by weakness in Canadian runs; ongoing issues at the Olmeca (i.e., Dos Bocas) refinery has also hampered Mexico’s nascent refined product output recovery.
Continental petroleum liquids consumption was weak in April, down nearly 300 kbpd y/y to 24.1 MMbpd, driven by core transportation fuel demand weakness across all three countries with only US NGL demand providing an offsetting uplift.
[Full Deck and Country-Level Analysis Below Paywall]