North American Oil Data Deck (July ‘23)

Canadian oil sands maintenance holds continental output back from fresh all-time high despite yet another US production record

This 33-page July 2023 edition of my monthly data-dense and visualization-heavy North American Oil Data Deck (attached PDF below paywall) is exclusive to paid Commodity Context subscribers. The deck contains detailed, decomposed accounting for US, Canadian, and Mexican upstream (i.e., production), downstream (i.e., refining) oil activity, and end-user demand (note: this report includes updated Mexican consumption estimates).

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• North American total liquids production fell back 271 kbpd m/m to 27.75 MMbpd in April, restrained by heavy maintenance on major Canadian oil sands facilities; US output, however, did hit a fresh all-time high. Year-over-year continental growth remains above 1.5 MMbpd and at 1.75 MMbpd year-to-date. 

• North American refining activity rose 0.36 MMbpd to 22.2 MMbpd in April, up ~200 kbpd y/y and supporting year-to-date y/y growth at 118 kbpd. Output has been driven by rising gasoline yields and the expense of diesel, reflecting the reversed fortunes of the fuels over the past year.

• North American petroleum product demand pulled back by 115 kbpd m/m to 24.6 MMbpd in April; continental demand was 344 kbpd higher y/y in April but remains ~80 kbpd lower year-to-date vs the first four months of 2022.