Commodity Context

Commodity Context

North American Oil Data Deck (December 2025)

Another record month for continental petroleum production, with year-over-year growth supercharged by favourable 2024 maintenance and hurricane-related base effects

Rory Johnston's avatar
Rory Johnston
Dec 03, 2025
∙ Paid

This 47-page December 2025 edition of my monthly data-dense, visualization-heavy North American Oil Data Deck is exclusive to paid Commodity Context subscribers (attached PDF below paywall). The deck contains detailed and decomposed accounting for US, Canadian, and Mexican upstream (i.e., production) and downstream (i.e., refining) oil activity as well as end-user demand.

Become a paid subscriber today to view the full North American Oil Data Deck report and join me in my hunt for ever-deeper oil & gas market context.

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Summary

  • North American petroleum liquids production rose +162 kbpd m/m to hit a fresh, all-time high of 31,165 kbpd in September. Year-on-year growth, at ~+1.8 MMbpd, was roughly double the trailing annual average in September pace thanks to hugely beneficial base effects related to heavy oil sands maintenance in Canada and hurricane-related Gulf Coast disruptions in the US. Overall continental output remains exceptionally robust, with US and Canadian non-OPEC-leading growth more than making up for the continued deterioration of Mexican supplies.

  • Continental petroleum product demand slipped seasonally (-379 kbpd m/m) to 25,261 kbpd in September, but that was higher on the year by 641 kbpd y/y, double the trailing annual average pace, with all three countries printing y/y gains.

[Full PDF Deck and Country-Level Analysis Below Paywall]

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