Global Oil Data Deck (September ‘23)

Oil prices are racing higher amidst tightening fundamental balances, confirmed by the most steeply backwardated crude futures curve since last November.

I had the pleasure of participating in the International Energy Forum’s (IEF) inaugural Oil Market Analysis Webinar, a new series diving into major differences and changes in the official outlooks published by the IEA, OPEC, and EIA. You can watch a free recording here.

Official cross-outlook analysis is included in every edition of the Global Oil Data Deck and was most recently assessed in Barreling Ahead (3Q23): Shades of Second-Half Deficits. 

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This 60-page September 2023 edition of my monthly data-dense and visualization-heavy Global Oil Data Deck series (attached PDF below) is exclusive to paid Commodity Context subscribers.

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Overview

• Crude is rallying hard amidst mounting supply deficits; both major benchmarks are now comfortably above $90/bbl, with Brent up more than $10/bbl since the latest Global Oil Data Deck to $95/bbl at the time of writing. 

• The rolling quarterly average supply deficit rose in July to 2.6 MMbpd, which is the most undersupplied reading since September 2021 when prices were rallying toward the extremely high levels of early-2022.

• Calendar spreads confirm these tightening fundamental balances, with both prompt and year-ahead spreads steadily recovering, and even rapidly rising, over the past month to the steepest backwardation since last November.

• Refined product markets remain strained, with tightness concentrated in middle distillate (e.g, diesel) and residual fuel oil markets.

[Full 60-page PDF below paywall]