Commodity Context

Commodity Context

Global Oil Data Deck (September 2026)

Oil market supply deficit eased through July on the back of Middle Eastern production recovery though rising summer demand absorbed much of the bolstered Hormuz flow.

Rory Johnston's avatar
Rory Johnston
Sep 25, 2026
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Overview

  • Global liquids balances loosened modestly through July on the back of rising Middle Eastern production following the US-Iran MOU and the short-lived surge of flows of our Hormuz, though an upturn in summer demand—even if blunted by high prices—absorbed most of those additional barrels and kept the market in supply deficit for a 5th consecutive month. Stock draws resumed in line with those ongoing deficits after June’s oil on water surge.

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