Global Oil Data Deck (September 2025)
Oil market balances counter-seasonally weakened into July and markets flipped back into a small, abnormal summer surplus as production continues to grow at more than twice the pace of consumption.
This 74-page September 2025 edition of my monthly data-dense and visualization-heavy Global Oil Data Deck series (attached PDF below) is exclusive to paid Commodity Context subscribers.
Note: new and expanded agency outlook comparisons included in this month’s Data Deck.
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Overview
Global liquids markets weakened through the summer, with July balances easing to almost perfect balance (+0.1 MMbpd surplus) from an estimated deficit in June; supply continues to growth at more than double the pace of demand (y/y) and this growth differential is expected to yield large and durable surpluses over the coming year absent a material reacceleration in global demand, a faster than anticipated pullback in US crude output, and/or an abrupt about-face from OPEC+ on its production normalization plans.
However, current prices and structure remain surprisingly well-supported—as Brent sits around $68/bbl and prompt term structure is improving anew—thanks to the combination of strong summer demand and robust Chinese strategic stock-building
[Full PDF Deck and Flow-Level Analysis Below Paywall]