Global Oil Data Deck (October ‘23)
Oil market balances tightened in August to their steepest rolling quarterly supply deficit in three years, maintaining fundamentally-justified upward pressure on crude prices.
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Crude prices are sitting around $90/bbl after rising as high as $98/bbl in late-September, experiencing their steepest decline in over a year that brought the barrel (to a low of $84), and, finally, rebounding on the back of geopolitical risks surrounding the onset of the Israel-Hamas War.
While flat prices have pulled back from their recent highs, calendar spreads remain exceptionally tight and, excluding the brief highs of a couple weeks ago, at their highest level since last November, which reflects still-low crude inventories and the largest rolling quarterly supply deficit in three years according to our latest estimates.