Global Oil Data Deck (October 2025)
Oil markets continued softening through August and supply surpluses returned in full force as a summer demand boost receded and OPEC+-fueled supply growth charged forward.
This 73-page October 2025 edition of my monthly data-dense and visualization-heavy Global Oil Data Deck series (attached PDF below) is exclusive to paid Commodity Context subscribers.
Note: new and expanded agency outlook comparisons included in this month’s Data Deck.
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Overview
Global liquids markets continued to loosen through the end of the summer and implied balances rose to a marked 1.6 MMbpd, the inevitable consequence of supply that has, for the past year, been growing at 3x the pace of demand.
Weaker balances weighed on both crude pricing and term structure over most of the past month, with WTI falling decisively into the $50s and prompt Brent timespreads falling to within a dime of cross-curve contango; then, the US’ latest round of far harsher than expected sanctions on major Russian oil exporters reinvigorated prices, and the curve, and has, at least temporarily, delayed a reckoning with the still-threatening glut.
[Full PDF Deck and Flow-Level Analysis Below Paywall]