Global Oil Data Deck (October 2024)
Modestly tight global balances persist through August but momentum remains tilted bearish as the pace of demand growth continues to slow more rapidly than supply.
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Overview
Global liquids balances remained in moderate deficit in August but momentum continues to point towards weakening conditions: supply growth persists in the face of still-slowing global demand gains, with the world struggling to offset the swamping effect of contracting Chinese fuel consumption.
Crude prices are roughly flat over the past month, although the journey was anything but smooth—crashing to around $70/bbl (Brent) in early October; rising to a high of $81/bbl as deeply oversold positioning was shocked awake by Iran’s missile strikes against Israel; and then pulling back as Israel reportedly favored a non-oil retaliatory target.
[Full PDF Deck and Analysis Below Paywall]