Global Oil Data Deck (Oct '22)

Oil market balances tightened slightly in August, but the market remains mildly oversupplied despite a few pockets of extreme tightness (e.g., diesel)

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Overview

• Brent crude climbed back to nearly $100/bbl in early October on the back of OPEC+’s sizable production cut; however, contracts have fallen back to around $91/bbl as of writing on yet more economic and demand concerns.

• Global oil supply-demand balances tightened slightly on the month (August) but still remained almost 1 MMbpd oversupplied, according to the latest estimate.

• Global liquids demand bounced back by 1.1 MMbpd m/m in August on a rebound in US consumption; this offset 1.0 MMbpd in supply gains, which was driven by a rebound in previously-depressed Libyan production.

• Note: a level change to some historical demand data has marginally tightened balances across the board, but the same pattern we have been following remains intact (i.e., loosening since April for the first time since the pandemic began).