Global Oil Data Deck (November ‘23)

Market balances remained tight in September but the trailing quarterly balance loosened for the first time since January; demand is strong but narrowly dependent on robust apparent Chinese consumption

I had the pleasure of once again joining the International Energy Forum’s Oil Market Analysis webinar to discuss the divergent outlooks published by the IEA, EIA, and OPEC—check out the free recording of the webinar here.

Paid Commodity Context subscribers will find related outlook comparison charts near the end of the attached Global Oil Data Deck report below (pages 44-54).

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This 60-page November 2023 edition of my monthly data-dense and visualization-heavy Global Oil Data Deck series (attached PDF below) is exclusive to paid Commodity Context subscribers.

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Overview

• Crude prices are sitting just north of $80/bbl (Brent) after rising as high as $98/bbl in late-September followed by a pullback driven, above all, by the most rapid withdrawal of speculative capital from crude contracts so far this year.

• The crude curve has also flattened considerably as both physical markets soften and front-curve-heavy speculative sales take their toll.

• Global oil market balances loosened on the month but remained in a sizable implied supply deficit for September, although this was the first month since January that saw a pullback in the trailing quarterly average deficit measure.

[Full PDF below paywall]