Global Oil Data Deck (November 2025)
Global liquids market balances loosened to their weakest since January 2023, with the growing surplus still primarily translating into swelling stocks of crude on water.
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Overview
Global liquids market balances loosened further in September, with the implied supply surplus rising to 2.9 MMbpd—the largest such monthly surplus since January 2023—as global production gains rapidly outpaced recovering demand growth.
Weaker balances and the potential easing of key geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on both flat crude prices and term structure as Brent fell $3/bbl through November to ~$62/bbl; the bulk of major crude benchmark futures curves are lingering in contango but the front of those curves remains stubbornly backwardated because of the glut of oil on water taking its sweet time hitting the market proper as well as broader geopolitical risks.
[Full PDF Deck and Flow-Level Analysis Below Paywall]