Global Oil Data Deck (May 2025)

Oil markets flipped into an implied surplus in March for the first time so far in 2025, led by a return of Chinese demand weakness that ran up against still-resilient production.

This 74-page May 2025 edition of my monthly data-dense and visualization-heavy Global Oil Data Deck series (attached PDF below) is exclusive to paid Commodity Context subscribers.

Note: new and expanded agency outlook comparisons included in this month’s Data Deck.

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Overview

• Global liquids balances loosened in March to the first (modest) implied surplus of 2025, largely driven by seasonal declines and the return of Chinese demand malaise; observable stock builds confirmed the looser conditions but reflected a rise of oil on water that offset inland inventory draws.

• Crude prices have remained under pressure, weighed down by both US policy volatility and OPEC+’s unrelenting drive to unwind its cuts far faster than originally communicated; speculative paper-selling has depressed the bulk of the futures curve into what appears to be a clear “bet” on impending supply-surplus market conditions to come, though persistent prompt backwardation continues to signal that, as of yet, said surplus has yet to be realized.

[Full PDF Deck and Flow-Level Analysis Below Paywall]