Global Oil Data Deck (May ‘23)

Global oil market balances in March slipped into their deepest deficit since last June on the back of Russia's production pullback and surging Chinese demand, which rose to a fresh all-time high.

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Overview

• Crude prices fell back once again over the past month, unable to escape the gravity of the ongoing macro doom loop that has all manner of financial assets trading in lockstep with the whichever broader economic topic de jour is captivating the market’s attention that particular week—most recently, the US debt ceiling.

• Global oil market balances slid deeper into deficit in March, with demand outpacing supply by ~0.8 MMbpd and representing the most undersupplied month since last June, when prices were near their cycle peak.

• Global supply pulled back in March on the long-awaited [though still tentative] reduction in Russian supply, while global demand was roughly flat on the month, caught between generally dour demand conditions and a surprisingly strong rebound in apparent Chinese consumption—perhaps the great reopening won’t be as disappointing as the past few months have made it seem.